|Dew Point:||46.0°F (7.8°C)|
|Wind:||From the SE at 4.2 MPH Gusting to 7.0 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||47°F (8°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.09" (1018.8 mb)|
Hi 57 °F
Hi 46 °F
Hi 38 °F
Hi 46 °F
Hi 55 °F
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. South wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Patchy fog between 10pm and 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Windy, with a west northwest wind 16 to 21 mph increasing to 24 to 29 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. Windy, with a northwest wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 38. Breezy, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming light west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.
A 30 percent chance of rain after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 46.
A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.
Fri Feb 24 2017
SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area tonight with showers and thunderstorms mainly for the mountains. Temperatures cool to near normal late in the weekend then warm up again early in the week. Another stronger cold front will move through the area mid week, increasing rain chances again.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EST Friday: Shortwave upper ridging to prevail across the Southern Appalachians today as the closed H5 cyclone moves further into the Western Atlantic, while a broad trof with a series of embedded shortwave impulses slides east across the Rockies into the Central Plains. At the surface, cyclogenesis will continue to deepen a low pressure system that is currently moving through Northern MO, while a cold front stretches southward into the Southern Plains, eventually approaching the MS River Valley this afternoon. Out ahead, modest and increasing southerly waa will dominate beneath the upper ridge therefore leading to a destabilizing warm sector as td`s push into the mid/upper 50s by mid afternoon. Low stratus that is expected to develop this morning will likely linger into late morning, however should scatter as mixing improves given relatively dry mid/upper levels per latest fcst soundings. With that, temperatures will surge to near record levels across the Piedmont, but are expected to fall just short given increasing cirrus from the west into late afternoon.
The fcst will remain dry through the day/evening hours before gradually increasing from the west into late evening/overnight as sly/swly moist flow yields at least a low end chance for prefrontal Southern Escarpment upslope showers. Fcst soundings do exhibit modest cape amidst a rather substantial midlevel inversion well ahead of the approaching front, thus although thunderstorms are certainly possible, think any deep convection is unlikely at that point. Said inversion does look to weaken and possibly erode as the upper trof approaches in phase with the surface cold front, which will work to steepen lapse rates somewhat thereby increasing chances for stronger/deeper convection. Deep layer shear will be on the order of 50-60 kts thanks to improved H85 flow, thus a few severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially along the frontal QLCS. For this reason, SPC has placed portions of the Western NC high terrain in the marginal risk for severe weather with damaging winds being the primary threat. Pops will increase further into the end of the period with likely levels favored over the mtns, tapering to slight chances eastward.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Friday, There`s a pretty definitive signal in the mesoscale and short term guidance that the frontal band will fall apart across the southern Appalachians tomorrow morning. This makes sense in light of the stronger deep layer forcing passing north of the area, meager buoyancy, and the high terrain disrupting the frontal circulation. As such, likely pops will be confined to the northern mtns, tapering rapidly to low chance across the SC/GA mtns and the I-40 corridor in the Piedmont, with only slight chances along the I-85 corridor. The severe weather threat should pretty much be confined to the immediate TN border counties at the start of the period, and even there the threat is marginal at best.
It is quite possible that the frontal band will be reinvigorated during the afternoon, as the front interacts with instability resulting from strong insolation across the Piedmont. However, if that does occur, it will most likely do so northeast of the forecast area. Otherwise, strong cold advection on gusty NW winds will overspread the mtns throughout late morning and afternoon, with temps falling throughout the day. Meanwhile, downslope warming from strong W/NW flow and strong insolation will offset the cold advection east of the mtns, where maxes in the 70s again appear likely. Much drier air will also filter into the area, and in fact, fire danger could become a concern in some areas Sat afternoon. See the Fire Wx discussion below for details.
Once the mid-level short wave trough axis passes into the Mid- Atlantic Sat evening, a moist low level NW flow is expected to develop across the TN Valley and Srn Appalachians. Although model guidance depicts the moisture as quite shallow, the temperature profile may be supportive of shower development, with snow chances being initially confined to the high peaks and ridge tops near the TN border, falling to the lower valley floors by late Sat evening before the moisture depletes. Even on the high peaks, little to no accumulation is expected.
Otherwise, temps from Sat night through the end of the period will be seasonably mild/chilly and very dry.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 AM EST Friday: High pressure moves off the Carolina coast early Monday with S to SE low level flow on Monday between the High and approaching Low from the west enhancing some rainfall against the mountains. Moisture gets into our area faster on the GFS late Monday and delayed on the ECMWF until Monday night. No instability late Monday for our region as that will be over the Lower Mississippi Valley at that time. The newest GFS run is much faster than previous runs and now has the rain arriving late Monday, transitioning to shower and thunderstorms Tuesday with greater instability and finally the cold front passing early Wednesday nearing the coast at 18Z Wed. The 12Z EC has the cold front passing mountains at 00Z Thurs and Piedmont at 06Z Thurs. The difference in timing is 12 hours or more. The cold front is well defined on the GFS with a line of 200 to 400 CAPE crossing foothills and Upper Savannah at 12Z Wed. 850mb wind speeds along and just ahead of the surface front from SW at 45 to 55kts on the GFS. Both GFS and EC agree on 600 to 800 CAPE from Elberton GA to Lakeland areas of SC Tuesday PM. The EC has fading instability going into Wed evening crossing from mountains to piedmont while of course GFS has the front off the coast.
Some NW Flow mountain snowfall Wed night provided the front moves through fast enough for cold air and some lingering moisture to combine. High pressure builds in from the west on Thursday. Temperatures starting Monday will be as much as 5 degrees above normal, then 10 to 12 degrees above Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps drop behind the front on Thursday to near or even slightly below normal.