|Dew Point:||49.0°F (9.4°C)|
|Wind:||From the NNW at 1.9 MPH Gusting to 6.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.19" (1022.2 mb)|
Hi 58 °F
Hi 52 °F
Hi 58 °F
Hi 51 °F
Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. North northwest wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 58. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Calm wind becoming south southeast 5 to 9 mph in the evening.
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. South southeast wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Showers likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 45. South southeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. High near 58. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Showers likely, mainly before 8pm, then a chance of rain after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.
CAM guidance shows if any convection gets going it will be in the next couple of hours along and south of I-85 then move east of the area by 22Z. Instability is weak with best mid level lapse rates to our north near the cold core of the upper low passing by to our north. Moderate wind shear is over the area though, so if a storm can develop, it will bear watching. That said, chance is low and diminishing. Isolated showers will also be possible over the NC mountains this afternoon the the moist NW flow.
This evening, drier high pressure builds into the area at the surface as upper ridging moves in from the east. Northerly winds develop and a slightly cooler air mass moves in. Still, lows will be around 10 degrees above normal. Low level moisture begins to move back into the area in the Wednesday in the northeasterly flow. There may be an increase in cloudiness, especially over the NC Blue Ridge and Foothills. The air mass is only slightly cooler, so expect highs to be around 10 degrees above normal.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday: A progressive long wave trough will cross the mid and lower MS Valley, while a downstream ridge slides off the East Coast thru the Short Term. As the upper trough approaches the forecast area, southerly upglide flow will increase atop a wedge that will set up east of the mountains by early Thursday. It still looks like the models may be overdone on PoPs and QPF, as forecast soundings show fairly shallow RH and low-level lift (while persistent) is not supported much by mid or upper forcing thru at least 00z Friday. In the very least, spotty showers and persistent low clouds should keep temps down in the 50s to mid 60s across most of the usual CAD areas, with upper 60s to mid 70s around the edges in the southwest NC mountains and Upper Savannah Valley.
Thursday night thru Friday, a surface low will track from Ozark Plateau to the southern Great Lakes. Increasing moisture and deep-layer forcing should spread better shower coverage overnight, especially along the south-facing slopes of the blue ridge escarpment. Some areas may receive 1-2" of QPF, as mid-level flow remains parallel to the mountains, helping train convection. Lows will be well above normal. During the day on Friday, the wedge front should begin to lift north and uncover a fairly unstable warm sector across at least the I-85 corridor, if not further north. Models are in good agreement on a slug of very strong deep-layer Q-vector convergence around 18z Friday, in line with timing of a cold front. Shear and helicity looks to support supercell or otherwise organized convection within the warm sector, and confidence is increasing in a severe weather threat. The SPC Day 4 convective outlook does have a slight risk for the much of the Carolinas and GA. So I plan to add a mention of severe tstms to the HWO. Temps should be able to get into the upper 60s to mid 70s where the wedge erodes.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday: The medium range fcst period kicks off on Friday evening amidst passage of an upper shortwave, while an upper ridge axis amplifies across the Plains. At the surface, a cold front will be approaching the region from the northwest as broad high pressure digs out of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Weak upper support associated with the passing H5 wave will warrant at least mid chance pops initially, before pops begin to taper from the west into Saturday morning, however holding a bit longer along the TN line where weak nw upsloping is possible. By mid morning Saturday guidance favors rising heights aloft as the surface ridge intrudes from the north with the cold front clearing the I20 corridor, all leading to a drier fcst into Saturday evening/night. The surface anticyclone will shift sharply to the southeast into/through Sunday while llv flow becomes more veered, thus moist upglide atop the periphery of the wedge-like pattern as well as weak upsloping potential will warrant low end pops across the escarpment regions. Meanwhile to the west, another possibly closed H5 cyclone will be marching through the southern Plains into the Midsouth region. Pattern evolution from this point forward is a bit unclear as operational guidance displays some discontinuities regarding timing/placement of the Midsouth cyclone, as well as the demise of the surface wedge pattern. Given a more southern track of this system as displayed via the ECMWF, the potential for strong/severe convection and heavy rainfall is present via hslc fields as well as abundant upslope potential along the Blue Ridge. However at this point it is way to early to lock in on such details, therefore for now the fcst will just reflect increasing pops Monday night, holding at widespread chances into/through Tuesday. Temperatures through the medium range will remain above normal levels.