|Dew Point:||16.0°F (-8.9°C)|
|Wind:||From the WNW at 6.3 MPH Gusting to 11.0 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||13°F (-10°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.01" (1016.1 mb)|
Lo 17 °F
Lo 29 °F
Lo 39 °F
Lo 48 °F
Lo 27 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Windy, with a west northwest wind 24 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 36. Wind chill values as low as zero. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 16 to 21 mph decreasing to 9 to 14 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph.
Increasing clouds, with a low around 29. South southwest wind 7 to 11 mph.
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 44. South wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. South southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Rain showers likely before 11pm, then rain and snow showers likely between 11pm and 1am, then snow showers likely after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sat Feb 25 2017
SYNOPSIS... Cooler high pressure will build into the region from the west through Sunday. Warmer air should return during the first half of next week. A warm front lifts north through the area around midweek as a cold front approaches from the west bringing showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 0230 UTC Update: Sky was reduced per infrared satellite imagery.
As of 200 PM: Low pressure now over Ontario/Quebec continues to drive a cold front across the Eastern Seaboard. Winds have shifted to NW across the mountains and foothills, and begun such a shift over the upper Piedmont. A few gusts upwards of 35 mph have occurred in isolated locations near the wind shift line. Expect frequent gusts of 20-25 kt in all areas until late afternoon. Convective coverage ahead of the front has peaked within our CWFA, and while a few congested cu remain in the I-77 corridor, it appears safe to remove all PoP from the near term forecast. There no longer appears to be enough moisture to expect upslope showers in the mountains.
Once the wind gusts diminish, clear and much cooler weather will return to the area tonight as high pressure builds in from the west. Min temps actually are expected to dip about a category below normal in the Piedmont, and perhaps two in the mountains. This will be followed by near-normal maxes Sunday.
The only impactful weather remaining in the period is the elevated fire danger associated with low afternoon RH and ever-drier fuels. This is particularly concerning today given the brisk winds. We will maintain a Fire Danger Statement thru 600 PM. However, for Sunday, winds will be much lighter; we will simply highlight low RH in the Fire Weather Forecast product, and the evening or midnight shifts may re-evaluate.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM EST Saturday: General west/southwest flow aloft will dominate the short term, with embedded shortwaves pushing through the area. We begin the period with surface high pressure off the NC coast, with southerly flow around the western periphery of that surface high, slowly bringing another warm and moist airmass to the region. Monday should see morning lows and afternoon highs fairly close to seasonal averages, maybe a degree or two above, before the low-level WAA really kicks in Monday night into Tuesday.
The first shortwave will bring increasing precipitation chances during the day on Monday as isentropic upglide increases across the Deep South and Southeast, and if the moisture arrives early enough, there might possibly be enough cold air-moisture overlap for some light snow in extreme western zones, but generally seems unlikely. The low-level shortwave splits Monday afternoon, with the northern wave damping. Precipitation falls apart over the Southern Appalachians Monday night as moisture flow is temporarily cutoff by an enhancement in precip along the SC coast with the southern shortwave (this can also be seen in vorticity fields as the southern vort stream intensifies as the northern one weakens Monday evening). Another weak shortwave/vortmax gets lifted over the region Tuesday morning ahead of a stronger upper level jet (to impact us at the beginning of the extended). The upglide pattern looks messy with lack of synoptic lift, but as usual generally favors the upslope areas of the SW NC mountains. Overall not much to write home about for QPF, but WAA increases Tuesday night ahead of the next system, with overnight lows closer to seasonal highs.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Saturday: During the short term, a longwave trough will be pushing through the Rockies and into the Plains, to affect our area at the start of the extended. Primary surface low over the Great Lakes at the start of the period will connect to a secondary surface low lifting from the OK/TX Panhandles toward the Mid- Mississippi Valley at the start of the period, with the cold front approaching the Appalachians Wednesday evening. Thankfully guidance is in much better agreement today, with the GFS much slower and lined up with the ECMWF and both depicting the frontal passage after 00z Thursday. This helps reduce severe potential as instability will be limited, and what little may be leftover across the area Wednesday night will be a little farther removed from the strong deep-layer shear. Still, the best chance for thunderstorms across the area will be with the frontal passage as mechanical lift adds its oomph to the convective instability lingering from the unseasonably warm temperatures on Wednesday (though frankly it`s the seasonal temperatures that are starting to feel abnormal). Still cannot completely rule out a strong to isolated severe storm (more of a HSLC situation with <500J/kg sbCAPE with 50-70kt deep layer shear, though the environment becomes decreasingly favorable after 00z Thursday).Will see another battle of invading cold air across the mountains pitted against retreating moisture, though with the help of some weak moisture attendant with the upper trough axis behind the surface front, and with this some light snow showers will be possible early Thursday across the mountains before the moisture completely dries up. Snowfall totals for now are less than an inch but will continue to refine with later forecasts. The end of the period will sport near-to-just-slightly-above average temperatures as mean upper trough remains over the area. A shortwave rounding the base of the trough may bring a clipper to the northern mountains Thursday night; GFS is farther south with this feature than the ECMWF. Have included very very light pops in the northern mountains just to hint at this possibility, with cool Canadian high pressure building into the area late in the week.