|Dew Point:||50.0°F (10.0°C)|
|Wind:||From the ESE at 5.6 MPH Gusting to 6.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.25" (1024.3 mb)|
Hi 53 °F
Hi 44 °F
Hi 51 °F
Hi 50 °F
Hi 52 °F
A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 53. West southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A 50 percent chance of showers. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 39. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A chance of rain before 7am, then a slight chance of showers between 7am and 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Windy, with a west northwest wind 18 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. West northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. West northwest wind around 7 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon.
Showers, mainly after 2am. Low around 42. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Showers likely, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52.
Tue Jan 17 2017
SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will approach the Carolinas from the west later this evening bringing increased chances for precipitation. A warm front will lift northward over the region on Thursday and Friday, bringing more rain to the southeast. A more significant low pressure system is expected to develop over the region on Sunday, bringing more unsettled weather to the area.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Tuesday: Cold air damming has eroded across the area (as evidenced by pressures and winds), but residual cool pool remains in place with weak low-level isentropic upglide continuing across the area resulting in continued low clouds. Upper ridge over the Caribbean and Gulf remains over the area, but approaching front associated with upper low lifting toward the Great Lakes will help to push the ridge to the south somewhat briefly, though the high will pop back up behind the front tomorrow (so the shortwave is kind of like pushing down on a balloon). The downstream ridging will also be enhanced by a deep cutoff low lifting out of the Desert Southwest and into the Southern/Central Plains tomorrow, inducing surface low formation along the TX Gulf Coast (to impact us in the short term).
There really isn`t much to this front and it certainly isn`t cold behind it, as is typically the case in the wake of CAD. Might see some precip with the frontal passage but most of that should be limited to the mountains, with really only slight chances elsewhere. While SPC does have portions of the SW mountains in a General Thunder area, CAPEs are nonexistent across the area (even MUCAPE) and have not reflected that in the grids. Front is just not dynamic enough for mechanical lift to result in thunder...at best just some showers but all pops pretty much gone within a couple of hours after sunrise. Wind swings around to the NW behind the front in the morning, and there should be enough moisture for another round of low clouds, but fog chances are greatly reduced with winds remaining 8-10kt through the period. Will see another night with lows warmer than seasonal highs, and then skies should clear and should see another day with well above-normal temperatures tomorrow with highs around 70 across most of the Piedmont (mid-upper 60s across NW Piedmont). Though cooler in the mountains, still far from what we would expect in January.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...The upper pattern will remain highly amplified and active across the Lower 48 thru the Short Term. An upper ridge will cross the Southeast Wednesday night thru Thursday, then a large upper low will lift out as a negatively tilted trough and cross the area on Friday. At the surface, a weak high will cross the area Thursday keeping it dry and mild, with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s and highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Then a low pressure system associated with the upper wave will drag an occluded front thru the region late Thursday into Friday. The models have converged on the timing of highest PoPs to be mainly after midnight Thursday night to midday Friday. There will be some instability with the front, but a weak in-situ wedge will limit CAPE to mainly the mountains and southern piedmont. Shear will be adequate for organized storms, but the limited instability will keep severe threat low. Temps will remain above normal with lows in the 40s to lower 50s and highs in the 50s to upper 60s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Tuesday: The medium range fcst period kicks off on Friday night amidst a brief period of shortwave ridging, while broad cyclonic flow continues to dominate the pattern out west. At the surface, weak high pressure will be in place beneath the aforementioned upper ridge axis across the Mid Atlantic states, while moderating southerly waa prevails across the Deep South. Pattern evolution through the medium range continues to be highlighted by the western upper trof and a rather robust closed low that develops through the day Saturday, all the while moving into the Southern Plains. In the meantime, an impulse of weak upper energy combined with moisture convergence along an old stalled frontal axis and an increasing unstable airmass will lead to robust convection along the I10 corridor region on Saturday. Guidance favors continuation of weak ridging across Northeast GA and the Western Carolinas, potentially providing focus for upglide forced stratiform rain Saturday afternoon, before the old frontal boundary lifts northward as a warm front yielding steepened lapse rates and thus improving instability promoting a transition to showers and perhaps isolated thunder for the overnight.
Moving on to Sunday, the primary upper cyclone looks to be stacked atop a relatively newly formed surface low, centered around Texarkana by daybreak. Out ahead in the warm sector, showers and thunderstorms look increasingly likely along/near the Gulf Coast as moisture continues to stream in across the Southeast states amongst improving sswly H85 flow all ahead of a progressive cold front. As this entire complex slides east into the TN valley and Southern Appalachian region late in the day Sunday, copious amounts of moisture look to advect across the fcst area potentially fueling a threat of moderate/heavy rainfall given deep convection as well as upsloping along the southern/eastern escarpment. Given the strong swly llj that is progged to pass through ahead/along the front, strong/severe convection cannot be ruled out.
The sfc front looks to advect east overnight into Monday morning, likely promoting continued light/moderate rainfall admist ongoing convection. Said front should clear the fcst area by around midday Monday, however pops will remain somewhat elevated into/through Monday evening across most of the region as the primary upper vort passes overhead, thus providing ample lift to support continued showers. The upper low will finally clear the region to the northeast on Tuesday morning as upper heights look to rise amidst a brief period of shortwave ridging to last through the remainder of the fcst period, therefore allowing pops to lower. Temperatures through the medium range will initialize well above normal on Saturday, cooling slightly, yet remaining above normal for Sunday/Monday and Tuesday amidst mostly cloudy skies and area showers.