|Dew Point:||52.0°F (11.1°C)|
|Wind:||From the SSE at 1.6 MPH Gusting to 2.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.61" (1002.6 mb)|
Hi 50 °F
Hi 61 °F
Hi 66 °F
Hi 68 °F
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 43. South southwest wind 10 to 14 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers likely, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. West wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly before 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. Windy, with a west northwest wind 21 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. West northwest wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind 9 to 11 mph.
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68.
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.
will push a warm front northward through the area tonight. Unstable conditions south of the front will lead to showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain. A few more showers may occur Thursday before drier and warmer conditions return to end the work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT: The passing pre-frontal line of convection is moving east across the foothills this evening and increasingly encountering an area already worked over by earlier convection. This should aid in the weakening of the activity even though coverage may stay fairly good. The Tornado Watch will likely be cancelled early in most areas. Hydro problems are also lessen behind the line of showers/storms and the FFA will only be retained for places with ongoing flooding issues or areas ahead of the line - which might still produce local one half to one inch per hour rates in a few spots.
Otherwise, the deep upper trough moving to the southern Appalachians overnight and then across the region tomorrow will produce additional scattered showers. Thunderstorms will probably be confined to the Carolina Piedmont. Temps should be below normal.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday: The sharp trough, and associated upper level low pressure system, we have been dealing with will shift to the east of our forecast area (FA) Thursday evening. The last of the convection should be ending Thursday evening in the NC mountains.
As the upper low lifts northeast into New England we will remain in a broad northwest flow aloft. Meanwhile high pressure from the Gulf of Mexico will build north into the Tennessee Valley. Moisture will be on a downward swing, and with the high pressure system close enough, we should have a dry Friday.
The upper flow will deamplify Friday night and Saturday, with ripples of energy riding east/southeast from the Mississippi Valley into parts of the southeast. At the same time, a weak frontal boundary will try to drop south (from Kentucky and Virginia), but will encounter the southern end of the westerlies and halt.
Nevertheless there appears to be a boundary of sorts (depending on model preference) which allows some moisture to pool and precipitation to develop. The GFS is the fastest, with the NAM and European Models slower. Since the Gulf of Mexico is cutoff from this scenario, we have sided with the slower precipitation guide Friday night, limited late in the NC mountains. We will have chance, or small chance, pops Saturday, perhaps reaching down to near the SC/NC state line and NE Georgia.
Interestingly the SB Capes from both the GFS and NAM are hefty for Saturday. However, a stout cap is in place. Therefore without a strong trigger it might be difficult to realize the instability.
In the temperature department our thermal profile signals a warming trend into Saturday, which we will follow.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 pm EDT Wednesday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on Sunday with flattening upper ridging over the southeast and another broad upper trof digging down over the Western Great Lakes. The long range models still have some lobes of mid to upper lvl shortwave energy passing just to our north on Sunday, however the main trof will be slow to progress eastward and isn`t expected to move over the fcst area until late Tues into early Wed. At the sfc, a cold front will approach the CWFA early Sunday but is not expected to move thru the CWFA until Monday. It appears to become stationary just to our SE by early Tues and lingers over the area until another, more robust cold front pushes thru the CWFA on Wed into early Thurs. As for the sensible fcst, no significant changes were made. We still have solid chances for convection on Sunday and Monday, and slight to solid chances on Tuesday and Wednesday with the highest POPs generally over the higher terrain. Temps will remain above climatology thru the period with a slight cooling trend towards the end of the period.