|Dew Point:||28.2°F (-2.1°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.12" (850.6 mb)|
Sleet Likely then Light Snow LikelyLow: 26
Chance Light SnowHigh: 32 Low: 19
SunnyHigh: 33 Low: 19
Mostly SunnyHigh: 37 Low: 25
Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain And SnowHigh: 36 Low: 33
Sleet likely and freezing rain likely and patchy freezing fog before 2am, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Northeast wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around one inch possible. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
A chance of snow before 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Northeast wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Northwest wind around 10 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 33. Northwest wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 19. Northwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.
A slight chance of rain and snow after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.
Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
... Precipitation is expected to finally end Monday night as the atmosphere finally dries out. Cool high pressure will overspread the region on Tuesday and linger into Thursday, before another low pressure system develops to our west and brings more widespread precipitation to the region by the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1000 PM: Obs and radar returns indicate very light precipitation still ongoing over western NC and at least the northeast portion of the Upstate. With almost all sfc obs now above freezing, this most likely is falling as either drizzle or small sleet particles. The updated forecast now mentions sleet across the area in the first few hrs, though accumulation thereof will be minimal. Per latest hi-res guidance, thick cloud cover and tiny dewpoint depressions, sfc temps should by and large remain at current readings if not rise slightly toward dawn, as the remnant CAD wedge continues to weaken. Snow cover will however limit the temperature rebound for many areas. 500 mb heights will fall west of the Appalachians. The 850 mb circulation will initially move off the Outer Banks this evening, but with some westward retrogression due to the heights falls to the west. This will lead to 850 mb temperatures and deep-layer thicknesses falling again from north to south tonight across our area. Ice nuclei also return as the moisture deepens once again under the approaching upper trough. Forcing ahead of the upstream trough axis should blossom atop the area from 06Z onward overnight. PoPs thus trend upward into early morning. A light band of precip is already setting up over northeast TN with this feature, and as this (or similar activity) moves across the colder regions of the CWFA, and snow/sleet reach the surface, a few tenths of additional accum will result. The trough axis will slowly move through the region on Monday. Anticipate very slow drying from the northwest through Monday, and will favor the slower GFS in this regard.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Sunday: The short term begins Tuesday at 00z with a sharp positively tilted upper trough/cutoff blasting through the Southeast behind the exiting coastal low. Guidance all points to some lingering pops through midnight or so, but quickly drying up as the trough begins to fill. Soundings dry rapidly between 700-900mb, with moisture remaining above 600mb and at the surface for a few hours, but then the column completely drying by daybreak Tuesday. Not 100% sure on the amount of ice nuclei available across the area, still some question as to whether the event would end as some light snow/flurries or light freezing drizzle; kept grids frozen for now but with no additional snow accums after 00z. The bigger concern will be overnight lows, below freezing everywhere and no warmer than mid 20s for NC, maybe some upper 20s in the Upstate, so anything that melted Monday will likely re-freeze Monday night, leading to widespread black ice issues. Winds might not be strong enough to contribute to much drying. Too early to consider a Winter Weather Advisory for black ice but likely will have to do so either tonight or tomorrow.
Highs Tuesday will depend significantly on how much snowpack remains, and have leaned on the cooler side especially in the mountains. NW downsloping winds, albeit weak, may help with some warming, but still well below seasonal normals. Even colder Tuesday night with a bit of a shortwave/weak dry front dipping through the area, and could see another round of morning black ice, but additional warmup on Wednesday (maybe only 10 degrees below seasonal normals) under shortwave ridging ahead of the next system will continue to help with snowmelt.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Sunday: As we push into the extended, another shortwave will be approaching from the west, though of course some differences in details in how the global models handle this. A deeper system will be shaping up over the the Southern Plains on Thursday, approaching our area Thursday night into Friday. Depending on how quickly the moisture arrives, could see some rain/snow mix across the northern mountains and extreme NW NC Piedmont. GFS has a little instability moving up in the area Friday and have continued slight chance thunder wording. Beyond that, the deep upper low could remain to our north (GFS) or south (ECMWF) so confidence not particularly high going into the weekend on temps or pops.