|Dew Point:||23.6°F (-4.7°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.93" (1013.4 mb)|
Mostly CloudyLow: 19
Partly SunnyHigh: 28 Low: 18
SunnyHigh: 39 Low: 28
Chance Light RainHigh: 44 Low: 36
Chance Light Rain then Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 48 Low: 39
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. West wind around 12 mph.
Partly sunny. High near 28, with temperatures falling to around 21 in the afternoon. West wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 18. Northwest wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 39. West wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. West wind 6 to 10 mph.
A chance of rain after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of rain, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of rain before 6am, then a chance of rain showers before 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A slight chance of rain showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.
... Dry and cool high pressure will dominate our weather through Sunday morning. Weak southerly flow with limited moisture will return to the area Sunday and Monday as another cold front approaches from the west.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 630 PM Thursday: A dry cold front will continue to sag southward acrs the balance of cwfa tonight. Evening IR satellite imagery still shows considerable high clouds along the periphery of the cwfa, but little else atop the region. Considerable high clouds along and south of upper jet axis will spread northward tonight in concert with the approach of elongated positive tilt upper trough. Sensible weather overnight should be limited to mainly considerable high clouds. At this point, encroaching clouds may hinder temperature drop overnight, in fact progged mins on latest guidance is a few deg F less cold than going fcst. Will monitor this trend through mid-evening before making any temperature changes.
On Friday, another shortwave will push across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the day, but will remain north of the forecast area. Thus, expect quiet weather conditions with passing clouds and high temperatures just below normal.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Thursday: A split flow pattern will set up over the southern half of the CONUS by Friday evening, with a northern stream clipper system moving from the southern Appalachians to the mid- Atlantic/southeast coast while deep, closed low pressure sets up over Mexico. Dry profiles will persist over our forecast area through Saturday as a flat upper ridge develops over the southeast, with temperatures near climatology. Meanwhile, the southern tier system will open up and phase through west TX. This system will lift over the Ohio Valley through Sunday as yet another southwestern cutoff low develops somewhere from Arizona to the Baja Peninsula. Mid level moisture will begin returning from the southwest ahead of the first phasing system Saturday night, but any deeper moisture will be slow to arrive through Sunday. Any early Sunday morning onset of light precipitation in the far southwest mountains could be freezing rain, but onset prior to temperatures warming above freezing looks unlikely.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 235 PM EST Thursday: Guidance is coming into better agreement on the overall pattern through the medium range. However, some detail differences remain keeping the overall forecast confidence on the low side. Upper ridging over the southeast CONUS Monday moves east Tuesday as split stream troughs move east toward the area. The GFS is faster with the troughs keeping both streams relatively in phase and moving east of the area Wednesday. The ECMWF moves the northern stream trough to the east with similar timing as the GFS but is slower with the southern trough and actually has a secondary southern stream trough late on Wednesday. The GFS troughs, while not particularly strong, are stronger the troughs on the ECMWF. A wave forms along a frontal boundary stalled to our south Monday which spreads moisture and precip north into the area. A stronger cold front moves into the area Tuesday and to the east Tuesday night. This should bring a better chance of precipitation, but even that could be limited as moisture flux may be interrupted by convection along the stalled front to our south. Therefore, have limited highest PoP to good chance given the uncertainty. Looks like precip will be all rain as H85 temps and thicknesses are warm for this time of year. Some mountain valleys could be in the 30s but should remain above freezing throughout. There could be some lingering NW flow precip Tuesday night across the mountains, but even this ends before temps cool enough for snow to mix in. Temps should be above normal all locations.
Dry high pressure and upper ridging build into the area Wednesday and Thursday. Another trough and frontal system build over the middle of the CONUS by late in the period, but expect any precip to hold off until after this forecast period, especially since there is timing disagreement with this system. Temps cool a little but remain above normal.